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In economics, the Phillips curve is a historical inverse relationship between rates of unemployment and corresponding rates of inflation that result in an economy. Stated simply, decreased unemployment, (i.e., increased levels of employment) in an economy will correlate with higher rates of inflation. While there is a short run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation, it has not been observed in the long run.〔Chang, R. (1997) ("Is Low Unemployment Inflationary?" ) ''Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review'' 1Q97:4-13〕 In 1968, Milton Friedman asserted that the Phillips Curve was only applicable in the short-run and that in the long-run, inflationary policies will not decrease unemployment. Friedman then correctly predicted that, in the upcoming years after 1968, both inflation and unemployment would increase.〔 The long-run Phillips Curve is now seen as a vertical line at the natural rate of unemployment, where the rate of inflation has no effect on unemployment.〔http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/PhillipsCurve.html#lfHendersonCEE2-126_figure_036〕 Accordingly, the Phillips curve is now seen as too simplistic, with the unemployment rate supplanted by more accurate predictors of inflation based on velocity of money supply measures such as the MZM ("money zero maturity") velocity,〔(MZM velocity )〕 which is affected by unemployment in the short but not the long term.〔Oliver Hossfeld (2010) ("US Money Demand, Monetary Overhang, and Inflation Prediction" ) ''International Network for Economic Research'' working paper no. 2010.4〕 ==History== William Phillips, a New Zealand born economist, wrote a paper in 1958 titled ''The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957'', which was published in the quarterly journal ''Economica''. In the paper Phillips describes how he observed an inverse relationship between money wage changes and unemployment in the British economy over the period examined. Similar patterns were found in other countries and in 1960 Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow took Phillips' work and made explicit the link between inflation and unemployment: when inflation was high, unemployment was low, and vice versa. In the 1920s an American economist Irving Fisher noted this kind of Phillips curve relationship. However, Phillips' original curve described the behavior of money wages.〔(I Discovered the Phillips Curve: "A Statistical Relation between Unemployment and Price Changes" ) Irving Fisher. ''The Journal of Political Economy'', Vol. 81, No. 2, Part 1 (Mar. - Apr., 1973), pp. 496-502. Reprint of 1926 article by Irving Fisher.〕 In the years following Phillips' 1958 paper, many economists in the advanced industrial countries believed that his results showed that there was a permanently stable relationship between inflation and unemployment. One implication of this for government policy was that governments could control unemployment and inflation with a Keynesian policy. They could tolerate a reasonably high rate of inflation as this would lead to lower unemployment – there would be a trade-off between inflation and unemployment. For example, monetary policy and/or fiscal policy (i.e., deficit spending) could be used to stimulate the economy, raising gross domestic product and lowering the unemployment rate. Moving along the Phillips curve, this would lead to a higher inflation rate, the cost of enjoying lower unemployment rates. Economist James Forder argues that this view is historically false and that neither economists nor governments took that view and that the 'Phillips curve myth' was an invention of the 1970s. Since 1974, seven Nobel Prizes have been given to economists for, among other things, work critical of some variations of the Phillips curve. Some of this criticism is based on the United States' experience during the 1970s, which had periods of high unemployment and high inflation at the same time. The authors receiving those prizes include Thomas Sargent, Christopher Sims, Edmund Phelps, Edward Prescott, Robert A. Mundell, Robert E. Lucas, Milton Friedman, and F.A. Hayek. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Phillips curve」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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